devtools::install_github("wilkelab/ungeviz")Using github PAT from envvar GITHUB_PATSkipping install of 'ungeviz' from a github remote, the SHA1 (aeae12b0) has not changed since last install.
Use `force = TRUE` to force installationHands-on Exercise 4 VU
11 Visualising Uncertainty
PUBLISHED
December 4, 2023
MODIFIED
January 5, 2024
11.1 Learning Outcome
Visualising uncertainty is relatively new in statistical graphics. In this chapter, you will gain hands-on experience on creating statistical graphics for visualising uncertainty. By the end of this chapter you will be able:
to plot statistics error bars by using ggplot2,
to plot interactive error bars by combining ggplot2, plotly and DT,
to create advanced by using ggdist, and
to create hypothetical outcome plots (HOPs) by using ungeviz package.
11.2 Getting Started
11.2.1 Installing and loading the packages
For the purpose of this exercise, the following R packages will be used, they are:
tidyverse, a family of R packages for data science process,
plotly for creating interactive plot,
gganimate for creating animation plot,
DT for displaying interactive html table,
crosstalk for for implementing cross-widget interactions (currently, linked brushing and filtering), and
ggdist for visualising distribution and uncertainty.
pacman::p_load(ungeviz, plotly, crosstalk,
DT, ggdist, ggridges,
colorspace, gganimate, tidyverse)11.2.2 Data import
For the purpose of this exercise, Exam_data.csv will be used.
exam <- read_csv("data/Exam_data.csv")Rows: 322 Columns: 7
── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr (4): ID, CLASS, GENDER, RACE
dbl (3): ENGLISH, MATHS, SCIENCE
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.11.3 Visualizing the uncertainty of point estimates: ggplot2 methods
A point estimate is a single number, such as a mean. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is expressed as standard error, confidence interval, or credible interval.
In this section, you will learn how to plot error bars of maths scores by race by using data provided in exam tibble data frame.
Firstly, code chunk below will be used to derive the necessary summary statistics.
my_sum <- exam %>%
group_by(RACE) %>%
summarise(
n=n(),
mean=mean(MATHS),
sd=sd(MATHS)
) %>%
mutate(se=sd/sqrt(n-1))Next, the code chunk below will be used to display my_sum tibble data frame in an html table format.
knitr::kable(head(my_sum), format = 'html')| RACE | n | mean | sd | se |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese | 193 | 76.50777 | 15.69040 | 1.132357 |
| Indian | 12 | 60.66667 | 23.35237 | 7.041005 |
| Malay | 108 | 57.44444 | 21.13478 | 2.043177 |
| Others | 9 | 69.66667 | 10.72381 | 3.791438 |
11.3.1 Plotting standard error bars of point estimates
Now we are ready to plot the standard error bars of mean maths score by race as shown below.
ggplot(my_sum) +
geom_errorbar(
aes(x=RACE,
ymin=mean-se,
ymax=mean+se),
width=0.2,
colour="black",
alpha=0.9,
size=0.5) +
geom_point(aes
(x=RACE,
y=mean),
stat="identity",
color="red",
size = 1.5,
alpha=1) +
ggtitle("Standard error of mean maths score by rac")Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
11.3.2 Plotting confidence interval of point estimates
Instead of plotting the standard error bar of point estimates, we can also plot the confidence intervals of mean maths score by race.
ggplot(my_sum) +
geom_errorbar(
aes(x=reorder(RACE, -mean),
ymin=mean-1.96*se,
ymax=mean+1.96*se),
width=0.2,
colour="black",
alpha=0.9,
size=0.5) +
geom_point(aes
(x=RACE,
y=mean),
stat="identity",
color="red",
size = 1.5,
alpha=1) +
labs(x = "Maths score",
title = "95% confidence interval of mean maths score by race")
11.3.3 Visualizing the uncertainty of point estimates with interactive error bars
In this section, you will learn how to plot interactive error bars for the 99% confidence interval of mean maths score by race as shown in the figure below.
shared_df = SharedData$new(my_sum)
bscols(widths = c(4,8),
ggplotly((ggplot(shared_df) +
geom_errorbar(aes(
x=reorder(RACE, -mean),
ymin=mean-2.58*se,
ymax=mean+2.58*se),
width=0.2,
colour="black",
alpha=0.9,
size=0.5) +
geom_point(aes(
x=RACE,
y=mean,
text = paste("Race:", `RACE`,
"<br>N:", `n`,
"<br>Avg. Scores:", round(mean, digits = 2),
"<br>95% CI:[",
round((mean-2.58*se), digits = 2), ",",
round((mean+2.58*se), digits = 2),"]")),
stat="identity",
color="red",
size = 1.5,
alpha=1) +
xlab("Race") +
ylab("Average Scores") +
theme_minimal() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(
angle = 45, vjust = 0.5, hjust=1)) +
ggtitle("99% Confidence interval of average /<br>maths scores by race")),
tooltip = "text"),
DT::datatable(shared_df,
rownames = FALSE,
class="compact",
width="100%",
options = list(pageLength = 10,
scrollX=T),
colnames = c("No. of pupils",
"Avg Scores",
"Std Dev",
"Std Error")) %>%
formatRound(columns=c('mean', 'sd', 'se'),
digits=2))Warning in geom_point(aes(x = RACE, y = mean, text = paste("Race:", RACE, :
Ignoring unknown aesthetics: text11.4 Visualising Uncertainty: ggdist package
ggdist is an R package that provides a flexible set of ggplot2 geoms and stats designed especially for visualising distributions and uncertainty.
It is designed for both frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty visualization, taking the view that uncertainty visualization can be unified through the perspective of distribution visualization:
for frequentist models, one visualises confidence distributions or bootstrap distributions (see vignette("freq-uncertainty-vis"));
for Bayesian models, one visualises probability distributions (see the tidybayes package, which builds on top of ggdist).
11.4.1 Visualizing the uncertainty of point estimates: ggdist methods
In the code chunk below, stat_pointinterval() of ggdist is used to build a visual for displaying distribution of maths scores by race.
exam %>%
ggplot(aes(x = RACE,
y = MATHS)) +
stat_pointinterval() +
labs(
title = "Visualising confidence intervals of mean math score",
subtitle = "Mean Point + Multiple-interval plot")
For example, in the code chunk below the following arguments are used:
.width = 0.95
.point = median
.interval = qi
exam %>%
ggplot(aes(x = RACE, y = MATHS)) +
stat_pointinterval(.width = 0.95,
.point = median,
.interval = qi) +
labs(
title = "Visualising confidence intervals of median math score",
subtitle = "Median Point + Multiple-interval plot")Warning in layer_slabinterval(data = data, mapping = mapping, stat =
StatPointinterval, : Ignoring unknown parameters: `.point` and `.interval`
11.4.2 Visualizing the uncertainty of point estimates: ggdist methods
exam %>%
ggplot(aes(x = RACE,
y = MATHS)) +
stat_pointinterval(
show.legend = FALSE) +
labs(
title = "Visualising confidence intervals of mean math score",
subtitle = "Mean Point + Multiple-interval plot")
Gentle advice: This function comes with many arguments, students are advised to read the syntax reference for more detail.
11.4.3 Visualizing the uncertainty of point estimates: ggdist methods
In the code chunk below, stat_gradientinterval() of ggdist is used to build a visual for displaying distribution of maths scores by race.
exam %>%
ggplot(aes(x = RACE,
y = MATHS)) +
stat_gradientinterval(
fill = "skyblue",
show.legend = TRUE
) +
labs(
title = "Visualising confidence intervals of mean math score",
subtitle = "Gradient + interval plot")Warning: The `scale_name` argument of `continuous_scale()` is deprecated as of ggplot2
3.5.0.Warning: `fill_type = "gradient"` is not supported by the current graphics device, which
is `"png"`.
ℹ Falling back to `fill_type = "segments"`.
ℹ If you believe your current graphics device does support `fill_type =
"gradient"` but auto-detection failed, try setting `fill_type = "gradient"`
explicitly. If this causes the gradient to display correctly, then this
warning is likely a false positive caused by the graphics device failing to
properly report its support for the `"LinearGradient"` pattern via
`grDevices::dev.capabilities()`. Consider reporting a bug to the author of
the graphics device.
ℹ See the documentation for `fill_type` in `ggdist::geom_slabinterval()` for
more information.
11.5 Visualising Uncertainty with Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs)
Step 1: Installing ungeviz package
devtools::install_github("wilkelab/ungeviz")Using github PAT from envvar GITHUB_PATSkipping install of 'ungeviz' from a github remote, the SHA1 (aeae12b0) has not changed since last install.
Use `force = TRUE` to force installationNote: You only need to perform this step once.
Step 2: Launch the application in R
library(ungeviz)ggplot(data = exam,
(aes(x = factor(RACE), y = MATHS))) +
geom_point(position = position_jitter(
height = 0.3, width = 0.05),
size = 0.4, color = "#0072B2", alpha = 1/2) +
geom_hpline(data = sampler(25, group = RACE), height = 0.6, color = "#D55E00") +
theme_bw() +
# `.draw` is a generated column indicating the sample draw
transition_states(.draw, 1, 3)Warning in geom_hpline(data = sampler(25, group = RACE), height = 0.6, color =
"#D55E00"): Ignoring unknown parameters: `height`Warning: Using the `size` aesthetic in this geom was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
ℹ Please use `linewidth` in the `default_aes` field and elsewhere instead.
11.6 Visualising Uncertainty with Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs)
ggplot(data = exam,
(aes(x = factor(RACE),
y = MATHS))) +
geom_point(position = position_jitter(
height = 0.3,
width = 0.05),
size = 0.4,
color = "#0072B2",
alpha = 1/2) +
geom_hpline(data = sampler(25,
group = RACE),
height = 0.6,
color = "#D55E00") +
theme_bw() +
transition_states(.draw, 1, 3)Warning in geom_hpline(data = sampler(25, group = RACE), height = 0.6, color =
"#D55E00"): Ignoring unknown parameters: `height`